Executive Summary
Market Dynamics: Volatility and Cross-Asset Moves
Last week saw unusually large moves in several assets, particularly precious metals. EUR/USD broke above 1.20 on Tuesday, marking the largest daily vol increase since March 2020, before declining in recent days. The softer US Dollar has been a key support for risk appetite year-to-date.
Short-dated Gold volatility increased since Q4 2025 and during Friday's selloff it spiked to levels last seen during the COVID-19 crisis. On the flipside, rates volatility remains anchored even though policy uncertainty was repriced through swap spreads tightening and curves steepening.
"We remain modestly pro-risk in our asset allocation for 2026, even though elevated risk appetite increases the risk of more volatility."
Precious metals rallied particularly sharply, exacerbated by a London liquidity squeeze, pushing the Gold/S&P 500 ratio higher even as equities reached new all-time highs. The commodities team's baseline continues to call for a move to $5,400 by December 2026.
FX Outlook and Hedging Strategies
The FX team expects the Dollar to fall modestly this year and more vs. EM and cyclical FX. However, rates differentials might play a limited role while policy uncertainty and institutional governance concerns might play a larger role.
To manage US asset dominance, we continue to look for regional diversification across assets and selective FX hedging through tight call/put spreads. In a rising Dollar shock scenario (our PC3 'US$' declining), attractive option overlays are Dollar (UUP) calls and EUR/USD puts.
| Asset Class | 3m Weight | 12m Weight | Current Level | 6m Forecast | 12m Forecast | 6m Return | 12m Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | OW | OW | — | — | — | — | — |
| S&P 500 ($) | N | N | 6,939 | 7,200 | 7,600 | +7.2% | +10.7% |
| Stoxx Europe 600 (€) | UW | UW | 611 | 605 | 625 | +2.3% | +5.5% |
| MSCI Asia-Pacific ex. JP ($) | OW | OW | 780 | 800 | 855 | +6.0% | +11.4% |
| Topix (¥) | N | N | 3,566 | 3,600 | 3,700 | +4.9% | +11.6% |
| Commodities | N | N | — | — | — | — | — |
| WTI ($/bbl) | UW | UW | 65 | 53 | 50 | -22.5% | -20.9% |
| Brent ($/bbl) | UW | UW | 71 | 57 | 54 | -23.7% | -22.2% |
| Copper ($/mt) | N | N | 13,068 | 12,500 | 12,000 | -8.2% | -17.4% |
| Gold ($/troy oz) | OW | OW | 5,030 | 4,865 | 5,065 | +0.7% | +9.4% |
Risk Appetite Principal Component Analysis
Our proprietary Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) principal component analysis reveals four key factors driving cross-asset performance: PC1 (Global growth), PC2 (Monetary policy), PC3 (Dollar), and PC4 (Euro area risk).
The Global growth factor (PC1) correlates strongly with our Global MAP Score, while the Monetary policy factor (PC2) tracks the US 10-year TIPS yield. The Dollar factor (PC3) has historically moved inversely with USD TWI movements, and recent weakness has been supportive of risk assets globally.
Top Ranked Hedges in Dollar Shock Scenarios
In a rising Dollar shock scenario (PC3 'US$' strengthening), our analysis shows the following as top-ranked hedges based on reaction to a 2SD change in PC3, controlling for PC1 and PC2:
- US Dollar (UUP) calls: Direct exposure to Dollar strength with positive convexity profile during stress periods.
- EUR/TRY put: High sensitivity to Dollar movements given Turkey's external funding vulnerabilities.
- USD/SEK call: Swedish Krona typically underperforms during global risk-off episodes.
- USD/SGD call: Singapore Dollar weakness correlates with broader EM FX stress.
- USD/CNT call: Chinese Yuan depreciation hedge for Asia-focused portfolios.
| Valuation Metric | S&P 500 | Stoxx 600 | MXAPJ | Topix | MSCI EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12m Forward P/E | 22.3x | 15.3x | 15.3x | 16.1x | 14.0x |
| Expensiveness (10y %ile) | 92% | 81% | 88% | 91% | 89% |
| 3M Change | -0.3x | +0.6x | +0.3x | +0.1x | +0.4x |
| Average (10y) | 18.9x | 14.2x | 13.6x | 13.9x | 12.3x |
| 95th Percentile | 22.4x | 17.4x | 16.2x | 17.3x | 14.8x |
Sentiment and Positioning
The average percentile of sentiment indicators remains elevated around 70-80%, indicating risk-on positioning across most asset classes. Key sentiment metrics show: Global Equity Flow (3m) at elevated levels, US Equity CFTC future positioning near highs, and Risky vs. Safe Bonds Flows (3m) firmly positive.
However, some indicators are starting to moderate. Safe Bonds Flows (12m) have turned more positive recently, and the GS RAI Momentum (GSRAIM) has pulled back from extreme levels. This suggests positioning is becoming less stretched, which could support further upside if fundamentals remain supportive.
Fund Flow Dynamics
Year-to-date cross-asset global fund flows show strong inflows into Money Market funds (~$100bn), with DM Fixed Income and US Equity also seeing positive flows. EM Fixed Income and EM Equity (local currency) have seen modest outflows, reflecting selective de-risking from emerging market exposures.
Investment Conclusion
We remain modestly pro-risk in our asset allocation for 2026, even though elevated risk appetite increases the risk of more volatility. The sharp corrections in precious metals and Dollar volatility underscore the importance of maintaining balanced exposures and selective hedging strategies.
Our key recommendations include: maintaining overweight positions in equities (particularly Asia-Pacific ex-Japan and S&P 500), keeping constructive on Gold with a $5,400 December 2026 target, and implementing selective FX hedges through Dollar calls and EUR/USD puts to protect against potential Dollar shock scenarios.
For portfolio construction, we emphasize regional diversification across assets to manage US asset dominance. While rates differentials may play a limited role in near-term FX moves, policy uncertainty and institutional governance concerns could drive larger currency moves. Tight call/put spreads remain our preferred hedging instruments given current volatility levels.
Key risks to monitor include: further escalation in geopolitical tensions, potential shifts in Fed policy stance following the new Chair nomination, and liquidity conditions in precious metals markets. We will continue to update our cross-asset forecasts as the macro environment evolves.
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