Executive Summary
Formula One Key Developments
Formula One achieved record US television viewership in 2025, with average viewership of 1.32 million per race, representing a 17 percent increase versus 2024. The Monaco Grand Prix led the season with an average of 2.3 million followers, while only four races fell below an average of 1 million followers, marking a year of increased engagement for the sport.
In October 2025, F1 announced its five-year US media rights deal with Apple TV, where F1 TV is included in Apple's approximately 150 million dollar annual package for the US F1 Media Rights. Formula One will retain all the first-party consumer data from fans watching F1 TV via Apple TV, representing a significant strategic advantage for direct fan relationships.
F1 Race Promotion Revenue Growth
Goldman Sachs estimates F1 race promotion revenue reached 1.08 billion dollars in 2025, with third-party race promotion revenue per Grand Prix reaching approximately 47 million dollars across 23 races. The firm projects race promotion revenue will grow to 1.19 billion dollars in 2026, driven by new race additions including Barcelona and increased fees for existing races.
The 2026 F1 calendar includes 24 races with notable additions such as the Barcelona Grand Prix replacing the previous Spanish race configuration. Several key races have secured long-term contract extensions through 2031, including Monaco with a significantly increased fee structure, Belgium, and Azerbaijan.
F1 Media Rights Expansion
Formula One media rights revenue continues to show strong growth trajectory. The upcoming Apple TV deal in the United States represents a 1.76 times step-up from the previous ESPN contract, with the annual average value increasing from approximately 85 million dollars to 150 million dollars for the 2026-2030 period.
The UK Sky contract renewal for 2024-2029 shows a 1.24 times step-up to approximately 280 million dollars annually, while France's Canal Plus extended through 2029 with a 1.52 times increase to approximately 100 million dollars per year. These contract renewals demonstrate sustained demand for F1 content across major markets.
TKO Group Performance
TKO Group announced three major sponsorship deals in fourth quarter 2025 across UFC, WWE, and PBR. Beginning in January 2026, Polymarket became the Official Prediction Market Partner for UFC and Zuffa Boxing, DoorDash became the Official On-Demand Delivery Partner for WWE and UFC, and Ram became the Official Truck Partner of WWE, UFC, and PBR.
UFC achieved record viewership on Paramount with UFC 324 on January 24, 2026, attracting approximately 5 million viewers with approximately 6 million peak concurrent streams. This represented Paramount's largest exclusive live event to date. The event was aired without an additional pay-per-view cost, marking a significant shift in the UFC business model following the new Paramount media rights agreement.
UFC and WWE Library Expansion
In January 2026, WWE announced an extension of its long-term partnership with Netflix to include WWE's library of Premium Live Events onto the platform alongside Monday Night Raw. While this announcement enhances WWE's exposure, Goldman Sachs believes the contract has relatively low economics compared to the previous deal at 45 million dollars.
UFC also launched its library of over 1,400 assets onto Paramount in conjunction with the expanded media rights partnership. The Paramount and UFC partnership expansion announced in October 2025 secured UFC media rights across Latin America and Australia starting in 2026, with fans in Latin America gaining access to 13 marquee numbered events and 30 UFC Fight Nights.
Zuffa Boxing Superfight
TKO announced that a Fury versus Makhmudov superfight will take place in London on April 11, 2026, where Tyson Fury is expected to be a main draw coming out of retirement. The event will be streamed live exclusively on Netflix at no additional cost to subscribers and will be Netflix's first live streamed event in the United Kingdom.
Given the superfight format, Goldman Sachs expects TKO to receive approximately 5 million dollars for promotion and logistics and an IMG fee of approximately 5 million dollars for negotiating the Netflix stream. Superfight promotion fees are in addition to the annual management fees associated with TKO's Zuffa Boxing, estimated at approximately 10 million dollars.
MotoGP Global Expansion
MotoGP demonstrated strong engagement growth in 2025, expanding its global fanbase to 632 million followers, representing a 12 percent increase versus 2024. Race weekend attendance grew beyond 3.6 million attendees, while MotoGP's TV audience grew 9 percent globally on average at each Grand Prix versus the 2024 season.
Goldman Sachs identifies significant opportunity for MotoGP to globalize its race calendar and negotiate higher-fee race promotion contracts over the medium-to-long term. With approximately one-third of races left to be negotiated past 2026, MotoGP has runway to expand beyond its current European-concentrated calendar.
MotoGP Race Calendar Structure
The 2026 MotoGP World Championship includes 22 Grand Prix races, with 14 races in Europe representing 64 percent of the calendar, 2 races in the Americas at 9 percent, 1 race in the Middle East at 4 percent, and 5 races in Asia-Pacific at 23 percent. Key markets include Spain with 4 races, Italy with 2 races, and individual races across France, Germany, Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary, Catalonia, San Marino, Portugal, and Valencia in Europe.
Several key race promotion contracts are set to expire in 2026, creating opportunities for renegotiation and potential fee increases. These include the United Kingdom at Silverstone Circuit, Spain at Motorland Aragon, Australia at Phillip Island, Portugal at Autodromo Internacional do Algarve, Malaysia at Petronas Sepang International Circuit, and Italy at Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello.
| Market | Share of Revenue | Strategic Importance |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | 25% | Largest single market |
| MotoGP VideoPass | 22% | Direct-to-consumer |
| Italy | 15% | Second largest market |
| Other Markets | 25% | Diversified revenue |
| France | 5% | Growth opportunity |
Sports Media Sponsorship Framework
Goldman Sachs has developed a comprehensive sports media sponsorship revenue framework that categorizes leagues and venues into tier structures. For top-tier leagues including NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, and in certain cases Formula One and UFC depending on deal size, sponsorship ranges are estimated between 25 million and 60 million dollars or more per year.
Mid-tier leagues including UFC, WWE, Formula One, MotoGP, MLS, NASCAR, and NCAA demonstrate sponsorship ranges between 10 million and 25 million dollars per year. Venue-level sponsorships for tier one venues such as NBA and NFL arenas can reach approximately 20 million dollars or more, while mid-sized venues including amphitheaters, small arenas, soccer venues, and baseball venues typically achieve approximately 5 million dollars or more.
Formula One Sponsorship Growth
Formula One sponsorship revenue is projected to grow at a 17 percent compound annual growth rate from 2023 to 2030, reaching 1.22 billion dollars by 2030. Global Partners represent the largest category, with major deals including LVMH at approximately 100 million dollars starting in 2025, Saudi Aramco at 74 million dollars by 2030, and Heineken at 76 million dollars by 2030.
Notable new partnerships for 2025 and 2026 include American Express and Santander both starting at approximately 28 million dollars in 2025, Pepsi starting at 25 million dollars in 2026 for Sting, Gatorade, and Doritos, and Standard Chartered beginning at 15 million dollars in 2026 as Wealth Management, Corporate and Investment Banking Partner. Formula One continues to demonstrate pricing power in sponsorship negotiations.
| Year | Total Races | Revenue (millions) | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026E | 24 | $1,194 | +10% |
| 2027E | 23 | $1,273 | +7% |
| 2028E | 23 | $1,333 | +5% |
Live Events Economics Analysis
Goldman Sachs maintains detailed builds of TKO's live events economics across UFC and WWE, including gate revenues, attendance, average ticket prices, and site fees. For 2025, UFC numbered events generated total gate revenue of approximately 109.7 million dollars across 13 events with average attendance of 19,047 and average ticket price of 483 dollars.
WWE Premium Live Events in 2025 achieved total gate revenue of approximately 166.9 million dollars across 24 events with average attendance of approximately 24,700 and average ticket price of 281 dollars. Site fees remain a significant revenue component, with Saudi Arabia events generating 110 million dollars in known site fees for WWE in 2025 and 47.5 million dollars for UFC.
2026 Live Events Outlook
For 2026, Goldman Sachs projects UFC will maintain flat year-over-year attendance at approximately 450,000 total across Fight Nights and numbered events, with average ticket prices remaining stable at 338 dollars. The addition of the White House fight, which has no gate revenue, creates a tough comparison versus high-profile 2025 venues.
WWE is projected to see a 5 percent decline in total attendance to 565,000 in 2026, driven by a challenging comparison versus Royal Rumble in Indianapolis and a slightly weaker Premium Live Event mix. However, average ticket prices are expected to increase 8 percent year-over-year to 304 dollars, reflecting increased fan interest and pricing power.
| Event/Location | Property | Estimated Fee |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia (3 events) | WWE | $165M |
| Abu Dhabi PPV | UFC | $25M |
| Saudi Arabia Fight Night | UFC | $22.5M |
| Wrestlemania Vegas | WWE | $10M |
| SummerSlam Minneapolis | WWE | $7.5M |
Consumer Sentiment and Engagement Trends
According to HundredX consumer sentiment data, Formula One ranks fourth in Net Purchase Intent over the trailing twelve months across all US sports entertainment properties at 11 percent. However, Formula One has seen lower trends through fourth quarter 2025 compared to historical seasonal peaks, with trailing three-month Net Purchase Intent moderating from summer 2025 levels.
The UFC has seen moderating Net Purchase Intent trends since summer 2025, declining from peaks above 20 percent to current levels around 6 percent, but remains within historical ranges. WWE Net Purchase Intent shows seasonal patterns, with declines in fall 2025 consistent with notable declines observed in fall 2024.
Formula One Digital Engagement
The 2025 Formula One season saw 13 percent higher downloads of F1 TV's app compared to 2024, indicating strong digital platform growth. However, monthly active users declined approximately 4 percent year-over-year over the same period, suggesting some users may be sampling the service without converting to regular viewership.
Global Formula One linear TV viewership has stabilized at approximately 1.68 billion total viewers in 2025, with unique viewers of approximately 70 million. Average global TV race viewership of 70 million represents a decline from peaks of 92 million in 2019, as more viewership shifts to digital platforms including F1 TV and YouTube.
Social media has proven to be the most impactful route for bringing new fans into Formula One, surpassing even the popular Drive to Survive Netflix series according to BuzzRadar analysis of 77.6 million online conversations.
Media Rights Contract Analysis
Goldman Sachs tracks all major UFC and WWE media rights contracts, including recent significant developments. The UFC domestic Fight Night and numbered events transitioned from ESPN to a comprehensive Paramount CBS deal beginning January 1, 2026, running through December 31, 2032, with an estimated total value of 7.7 billion dollars and annual average value of approximately 1.1 billion dollars.
This represents a 2.0 times combined step-up from the previous ESPN deal that included both Fight Night and pay-per-view components. The Paramount deal marks a significant shift in UFC's distribution strategy, moving away from the traditional pay-per-view model to a direct-to-consumer service included with Paramount subscriptions.
WWE Media Rights Portfolio
WWE's media rights portfolio has undergone substantial changes. Monday Night Raw moved to Netflix beginning January 1, 2025, on a ten-year deal with estimated total value of 3.85 billion dollars and annual average value of approximately 385 million dollars, representing a 1.45 times step-up from the previous NBCU USA Network contract.
Friday Night Smackdown transitioned from FOX to NBCU USA Network in October 2024 on a five-year deal worth 1.435 billion dollars total and 287 million dollars annually, a 1.40 times increase. WWE Network Premium Live Events moved to ESPN beginning September 2025 on a five-year deal with estimated total value of 1.625 billion dollars and annual average value of 325 million dollars, representing a 1.8 times step-up from the previous Peacock deal.
| League | Recent Deal | AAV Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| F1 (US) | Apple TV 2026-2030 | 1.8x |
| UFC | Paramount 2026-2032 | 2.0x |
| WWE PLEs | ESPN 2025-2030 | 1.8x |
| WWE Raw | Netflix 2025-2034 | 1.5x |
| F1 (France) | Canal Plus 2025-2029 | 1.5x |
Investment Implications and Outlook
Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings on both TKO Group with a twelve-month price target of 235 dollars representing 16 percent total potential return including approximately 0.6 percent dividend yield, and Liberty Formula One with a twelve-month price target of 115 dollars. The firm's positive outlook is supported by multiple growth drivers across both companies.
For TKO Group, key investment drivers include the significant 7.7 billion dollar Paramount media rights deal that substantially increases annual revenue visibility, continued sponsorship momentum with multiple new deals announced in fourth quarter 2025, and strong live events pricing power demonstrated by projected 8 percent average ticket price growth for WWE in 2026.
Formula One Growth Catalysts
Formula One's investment thesis is underpinned by record US viewership growth of 17 percent in 2025, successful media rights renewals showing consistent step-ups in the 1.2 to 1.8 times range across major markets, continued race promotion revenue growth projected at 10 percent in 2026, and expanding sponsorship revenue with a 17 percent compound annual growth rate through 2030.
The Apple TV media rights deal beginning in 2026 represents a strategic positive, as Formula One will retain all first-party consumer data from fans watching F1 TV via Apple TV, enabling enhanced direct marketing and potential future monetization opportunities. Digital platform growth with 13 percent higher F1 TV app downloads in 2025 demonstrates increasing direct-to-consumer engagement.
Key Risks to Monitor
For Liberty Formula One, primary risks include potential declining engagement and viewership if the 2026 season underperforms, stress in the race promoter system for partners dependent on government subsidies, environmental activism concerns related to motorsport's energy-intensive logistics, and potential MotoGP race cancellations due to operational issues.
For TKO Group, key risks encompass potential decline in UFC or WWE popularity, UFC media rights renewal coming in lower than expected, increased competition for viewers and talent in mixed martial arts and wrestling categories, and synergies taking longer to achieve than anticipated. Macroeconomic headwinds that result in weaker consumer spending and advertising environment represent risks to both companies.
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